A regular traveler is planning an overseas trip but hasn't purchased her plane ticket. So she visits various websites that can predict whether the cost of her ticket will rise or fall. Two sites say ...

Unanet's Kim Koster explains how Probability of Award helps GovCons move from intuition to data-driven forecasting and ...

Winter road maintenance is one of the main tasks for the Washington State Department of Transportation. Anti-icing, that is, the preemptive application of chemicals, is often used to keep the roadways ...

The probability in weather forecasts leaves many people perplexed on if, or when, they should continue with plans, cancel or delay. As summer ramps up across North America, millions of travelers, ...

Currently, scientists struggle to forecast volcano eruption events, as no universally reliable, real-time eruption ...

Adaptive forecasting is a term used to describe several different methods of determining the likelihood of events occurring based on statistical data and variable analysis. These forecasting methods ...

BACKGROUND We consider the problem of quantifying the human lifespan using a statistical approach that probabilistically forecasts the maximum reported age at death (MRAD) through 2100. OBJECTIVE We ...

A general rule of thumb regarding weather forecasting is that a short-term weather forecast is going to provide more details and it will likely be more accurate than a long-range forecast. Forecasts ...

Investors have been whipsawed by volatility for more than three years. A predictive tool from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has a phenomenal track record of forecasting directional moves in the ...

Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which ...