The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

Yield curve re-inversions are not uncommon and can occur multiple times before a recession, as seen in historical examples from 1988, 1998, and 2006. The 2022-23 inversion was unique due to ...

Yield curve inversions have historically preceded recessions, but not all inversions guarantee a downturn; context and economic conditions matter. Watching long-term/short-term yield patterns after an ...

The yield curve’s inversion and imminent un-inversion signal a high probability of a recession, likely beginning within months. Historical analysis shows the depth and duration of the current ...

The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that's known as an "inverted yield curve," and it's had a sterling prediction record. While ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

Despite years of warnings on the part of economists, strategists and other market pros, the U.S. economy has thus far avoided falling into a recession. True, the economy may not feel that great to the ...

U.S. Treasury yield curves have normalized after prolonged inversion, with the 2s/10s and 3-Month/10-Year constructs now turning positive. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a macro narrative shifting ...

The resolution of the inverted 10-year and 3-month yield curve usually signals a recession down range. Inflation expectations are reflected in the term premium, which has increased considerably since ...

The yield curve shows the difference in the short- and long-term interest rates of bonds and other fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term ...

The U.S. economy avoided a widely expected recession, despite a deeply inverted yield curve historically signaling downturns. Massive AI-driven CapEx by hyperscalers has created a parallel economic ...