The chance of the disturbance forming in the next couple of days or within a week is 20%.

For now, the system does not appear to be a threat to the mainland United States, and the odds of anything making it into the Gulf of Mexico are low.

There is a 30% chance that the system will develop in the next two days and a 40% chance that it will develop within a week. A low-pressure system spotted Monday afternoon by forecasters is causing showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean.